This is a Digital Download featuring PowerPoint Slides with Synchronized Audio from the 12th Annual Intercompany Long Term Care Insurance Conference March 2012. Watch the slides while listening to the synchronized audio, exactly as is happened live.

Future Actuarial Tools: Understanding and Refining Simulation Models - ILTCI2012

Session Description: Monte Carlo Simulation models provide a wealth of detailed results, including statistical distributions of cash flow and reserve projections. However, these distributions can be misleading if the models parameters are misestimated. Given the uncertainty in the models parameters, what do Monte Carlo models really tell us? In this session, panelists will present advanced techniques to correctly represent uncertainty in the models parameters. Presenters will discuss the implications, strengths, and weaknesses of simulation models.

Session Speakers: Peggy Hauser Senior Vice President, Actuarial Services, Univita (formerly LTCG) Amy Pahl, FSA, MAA  Principal and Consulting Actuary, Milliman, Inc. Roger Loomis, FSA, MAAA  Systems Development Actuary, Actuarial Resources Corp. (ARCVAL) Dr. Stuart Klugman, FSA, CERA, PhD  Staff Fellow, Society of Actuaries